Research Projects and Publications

Real-Time Weather-Dependent Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of the Icelandic Power System

Power Systems and Smart Grids

Author: Samuel Perkin

Year: 2018

Degree Awarded: PhD

Supervisors: Dr. Páll Jensson, Dr. Hlynur Stefánsson, Dr. Ragnar Kristjánsson, Dr. Louis Wehenkel, Íris Baldursdóttir, Dr. Magni Þór Pálsson


Power system operation is concerned with supplying electricity to society in a reliable manner. Reliability has traditionally been managed through use of the deterministic N-1 criterion. The EU FP7 GARPUR research project proposes that Transmission System Operators (TSOs) transition to the use of a probabilistic reliability management approach and criteria. This proposal is based on the N-1 criterion's insensitivity to: the variable probability of exogenous threats to power systems; varying spatiotemporal and socio-economic impacts of service outages; and the trade-off between preventive and corrective controls, among other aspects.

This work aimed to implement the theoretical framework presented by GARPUR on the Icelandic transmission system in the context of real-time operations. This was achieved by first interpreting the GARPUR framework into an ideal implementation.The ideal implementation was then simplified, by considering present day data andtool availability, into a first-step implementation of the GARPUR framework, which was prototyped on academic test systems. This formed the basis for developing a pilot test of the GARPUR framework on the Icelandic transmission system. The pilot test was extended beyond present day tools and data, such as the creation of weather dependent failure rate models to determine the importance of weather in real-time risk assessment, and a custom-built system response model to assess the impact of various assumptions and system protection devices.

The core of this work is a validation that the approach proposed by the GARPUR project can be implemented as a tractable and practically useful reliability assessment process for real-world system operation. Additionally, this work shows the influence of weather on real-time reliability through the use of weather-dependent failure rate models. As a result, recommendations are made on the practical and gradual transition from present TSO practices towards probabilistic approaches.

The thesis work is done in collaboration with Landsnet, the operator of the Icelandic transmission system. The thesis work is funded by the EU GARPUR project through Landsnet.

Links to Publications

Conference Abstracts:

Framework for Threat Based Failure Rates in Transmission System Operation

Near Real-Life Pilot Testing of Real-Time Probabilistic Reliability Assessments

On Improving Data and Models on Corrective Control Failures for Use in Probabilistic Reliability Management

Journal Article: 

Modelling Weather Dependence in Online Reliability Assessment of Power Systems

 GARPUR Deliverables: 

D6.1, D6.2, D8.1 and D8.3