From Fenton Hill to Fervo: Is EGS Approaching Commercial Viability?

Author: Jason Lipton
Year: 2024
Supervisors: Juliet Ann Newson, Michal Moore

Abstract:

It has been 50 years since the pioneering Fenton Hill Engineered Geothermal System (EGS) project broke ground. Since then, nearly 100 other EGS initiatives have taken shape in some capacity worldwide, aiming to develop artificial geothermal reservoirs through stimulation and fracturing, with the promise of enabling commercial-scale geothermal power and direct heat anywhere. In the past five years, a growing number of project developers and select public entities have trumpeted technical breakthroughs and purchase agreements as indications of imminent commercial viability. Yet for decades, there have been reports that suggested similar optimism. Through a synthesis of project data, analysis of published research and forecasts, and a series of subject matter expert discussions, this thesis seeks to validate the current status and technoeconomic achievements of EGS and related next-generation geothermal systems towards commercialization. This analysis finds that recent advances are indeed bringing isolated EGS projects closer to scalability and commercial viability. A deep dive into project-level data separates the heat from the hype in an assessment of how recent achievements may shape tomorrow's geothermal systems.

URL: https://hdl.handle.net/1946/48711