Energy Security in Select Eastern European Countries: Index for Evaluation and Comparison
Author: Erin Renee Lawyer
Year: 2023
Supervisor: Dr. Ewa L. Carlson
Abstract:
After the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in February 2022, energy security in the EU was put into question. Dependency on Russian fossil fuel imports resulted in difficulty implementing sanctions, along with volatile energy prices impacting the entire continent. Some of the most affected countries were those highly dependent on Russian energy, and geographically cut off from other sources. This article evaluates the state of energy security in selected Southeast and Eastern European countries: Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, and Slovakia. These countries were chosen due to their geographic location, dependency on Russian resources, and lack of previous literature evaluating and comparing energy security within. Evaluations of the energy situation in each nation were developed along with an index for comparison among each country and the EU plus other European regions based on 25 data metrics. Data collected include energy supply diversity, energy import/export ratio, price volatility in electricity and natural gas, renewable energy capacity, green hydrogen investment, future electricity and capacity installation needs, and cross-border transmission capability. Metrics were grouped into categories: energy imports and natural gas storage, cross-border connections, energy prices, the electricity sector, RES share in other sectors, national RES in energy targets, energy use, and funding/policy. To determine an index score within each category for each country, each category was assigned a weight based on importance to energy security. Scores results vary in each category, but Romania displays the most energy-secure situation, with Bulgaria and Serbia indicating the most risk. Overall common issues in the region include volatility in electricity prices and a need to increase RES share in electricity and RES domestic generation capacity. Funding for RES projects varies by nation, but significant headway is being made regarding green hydrogen policy and regulation throughout all nations.