MSc Thesis: Modelling Consumer Type Specific Electricity Load in Iceland

Berit Hanna Czock successfully defends her master's thesis


REYKJAVIK, JUNE 22 - On the 25th of May, Berit Hanna Czock, MSc in Sustainable Energy Engineering, has successfully defended her master's thesis research in which she used aggregate electricity load measurements from Iceland in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation approach and seasonal ARIMA models to provide short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasts. Berit's work was supervised by Ewa Lazarczyk Carlson from Háskólinn í Reykjavík and advised by Samuel Perkin from Landsnet.

Berit started her presentation by discussing a power systems reliability management method called GARPUR. “GARPUR” stands for Generally Accepted Reliability Principle with Uncertainty Modelling and Through Probabilistic Risk Assessment. This is significant because reliable power systems promote efficient power usage.

Berit's case study dealt with the Icelandic power system and her study aimed to create consumer load data curves from given aggregate load curves from the end user division of 44 substations. This proved challenging because different user types follow different consumption patterns that were not discernable from the given data. To account for lack of data, Berit conducted load profiling using different methods including dispatch optimization and demand side management bottom up and top down methods. All of which are data intensive and therefore time consuming and costly.

She found it more effective to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation that sampled 10,000 solutions for all nodes. This was then validated against error approximations and error curves.

The methodology of Berit's study would be applicable in a similar case where power systems operators are looking to develop user specific power usage models which in turn can be used to predict power usage and effectively mitigate power production and distribution. To read more about Berit's work, click on the following  link .

Congratulations, Berit on an excellent thesis!


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